A Food and Drug Administration analysis of survival outcomes comparing the Adjuvant Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab trial with an external control from historical clinical trials

Background: Although the Adjuvant Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab (APT) trial has been adopted clinically, single-arm trials have limitations, and interest remains whether these patients with small node-negative human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer (EBC) would benefit from more intensive chemotherapy. This analysis explored whether external controls can contextualize single-arm studies to add to clinical decision making in the use of de-escalated therapy in patients with low-risk HER2-positive EBC.

Patients and methods: Patient-level data from five randomized trials supporting drug approval in adjuvant HER2-positive EBC were pooled, and patients with low-risk EBC were selected (n = 1770). Patients treated concurrently with trastuzumab and either anthracycline/cyclophosphamide/taxane/trastuzumab (ACTH) or taxane/carboplatin/trastuzumab (TCH; n = 1366) were matched (1:1) to patients treated with paclitaxel and trastuzumab (TH) in the APT trial (n = 406) using propensity scores. Patients treated with anthracycline/cyclophosphamide/taxane (ACT; n = 374) were also matched (1:1) to those treated with TH. Propensity scores were estimated using covariates of age, tumor stage, estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, and histological grade.

Results: After matching, the estimated probabilities of invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) at 3 and 5 years were 98.6% and 96.5% in the TH arm, and 96.6% and 92.9% in the ACTH/TCH arm, respectively. The estimated probabilities of overall survival (OS) at 3 and 5 years were 99.7% and 99.3% in the TH arm, and 99.0% and 97.4% in the ACTH/TCH arm, respectively. Comparing the TH arm with the ACT arm in the matched sample, the estimated difference in iDFS was 7.5% (TH 98.8% and ACT 91.3%) at 3 years and 12.6% (TH 96.1% and ACT 83.5%) at 5 years. The estimated difference in OS was 2.6% (TH 100% and ACT 97.4%) at 3 years, and 5.3% (TH 99.3% and ACT 94.0%) at 5 years.

Conclusions: Our analyses suggest that patients' outcomes in both arms were in general similar, thus providing additional reassurance regarding de-escalation of therapy.